The Bachelor is a bit like Halloween, where that one celebrity goes viral for doing something problematic, like wearing blackface. Every year it happens, and every time it does, you can't help but think, Really? This? Again? This is now the 21st instance of a man turning to a network television show to get famous enough to parlay his way into another career find love. For this particular man, Nick Viall, who may one day end up being that celebrity in an unfortunate costume, it is his third attempt doing so.

Tonight is his great reckoning, when Nick must choose his bride from the final two contestants. And whether you watch the show or not, this is all you're going to be seeing on your Twitter feed from 8:00 P.M. EST until our solar system's sun goes dim, so you better figure out who you're rooting for. Fear not. After reading two-and-a-half recaps, watching roughly six minutes of clips, and talking to some rabid fans—[cough] GQ colleagues [cough]—of ABC's weekly love carousel, I, a human who has watched no episodes of The Bachelor, have used science to determine which contestant most deserves to win the show that has rejected my application four seasons in a row.

First, to understand who you should be rooting for, you need to understand Nick. From what I can tell, Nick, a man who looks like the love child of Ryan Reynolds and an in-shape teddy bear, likes to wear sweaters, drink out of mugs, and have conversations near fireplaces. He seems like a mostly alright dude whose favorite album is probably not an album but the film Road to Red Rocks: Mumford & Sons. Twice before he has been on the cusp of proposing as a final contestant on The Bachelorette. Both times he was rejected. The Milwaukee native's heart is likely confused, as knotted up as a balloon animal. What Nick, a guy who probably sits in the front row of SoulCycle class, really needs is a rock, someone who not only knows what she wants, but knows it so certainly that she'll watch Road to Red Rocks: Mumford & Sons if it means getting it.

Out of the thirty women who originally rolled up to the show's L.A. mansion (which seems to always have an alarming number of lit candles in it), only Raven and Vanessa remain as possibilities to be that person.

Raven is 25 and from Arkansas, with the endearing twang to prove it. In her original contestant biography, when asked who her favorite actor was, she answered, "Brittany Murphy (when she was alive)." It's unclear if that means she's still her favorite actress or if she stopped liking Brittany Murphy when she died, but it seems like an important distinction. Raven also danced through the streets of Finland after Nick gave her what she seemed to imply was her first-ever orgasm. Her ex-boyfriend disputes these claims, and who can blame him?

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Vanessa is 29, and a special education teacher from our neighbors to the north (i.e. Canada). She is close with her family, and was done dirty by the producers who put together the season finale preview and were quite generous with the shots of her crying (in my opinion, this clear slant in the trailer indicates that she will win, a take supported by this recent photo of her at a wedding dress shop). Vanessa strikes me as someone who is super compassionate and conscientious, the person from this season who you'd most want taking care of your aquarium of exotic fish if you left town.

Of the The Bachelor insiders I talked to, one said he wanted Vanessa to win because "she has a pure heart and works with special needs kids and is Canadian" before texting later to add "I'd gladly clean up her puke every day" (a reference to an earlier episode when Vanessa gets sick on a zero gravity plane date but still a weird thing to offer, nonetheless) and then elaborating yet again with "her heart is too pure for this circus." (I think this expert was drinking.) A second said that I "should be rooting for the proverbial asteroid." When asked for clarification, he said, "You should root for the asteroid to hit the set so we don’t have to deal with this bullshit season anymore."

So who should Nick, a guy who probably shouts "And one!" when he goes to the hole in pickup basketball, choose?

You should be rooting for Vanessa to win. But only because you're really rooting for Raven.

I'll explain: In Vanessa, an older, more mature contestant, Nick finds the lady that will ground him. Nick finds love (or at least a chance to try). Vanessa finds love (or at least a Neil Lane ring she probably doesn't want). And what about Raven? I want Raven to find love, too! But you know what? No one should go to the grave experiencing sex ecstasy with only one person. Nick can't be the first and last guy she has an orgasm with. She's only 25. She needs more time! So, really, this isn't about me wanting her to have her heart broken. This is about me not wanting her sex life to end with a guy who looks like a guy James Franco would play in a movie.

Watch Now: The Sexiest Couple AliveClay Skipper is a Staff Writer at GQ.XInstagramRelated Stories for GQThe BachelorRelationshipsTVSex and Relationships